NH Shoreland Protection act changes following a 2011 Legislative Update from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® Public Policy Committee. The Comprehensive Shoreland Protection Changes and Funding Re-authorization included in Budget (HB 2 and SB 154).

Senate Bill 154, the Senate version of a bill to reform and reauthorize the Comprehensive Shoreland Protection Act, which was supported by NHAR, will likely be vetoed by Governor Lynch, because a non-germane amendment was attached in the House of Representatives repealing a cap-and-trade greenhouse gas initiative (RGGI). The Governor has said he supports the reforms to the Comprehensive Shoreland Protection Act but opposes withdrawal from the RGGI program.

The good news is that the entire text of SB 154 was attached to House Bill 2, the state budget bill, which has now passed both the House and Senate.  However, it is not clear if the Governor will sign that budget proposal bill.

The complete changes to the Shoreland Protection Act can be found by clicking here.

Today we will be discussing signals in the marketplace to consider when you evaluate buying or renting a home.   The  housing market fallout and slow climb to  recovery has created some of the most affordably priced homes in a decade.  However, you may still be concerned that prices may continue to fall or keep falling after closing. Hopefully we can shed some light on what to look for in evaluating whether to buy or rent a home.

Mortgage rates are likely to increase. The national data supports an established bottom in most local markets and certainly in the New Hampshire and Vermont markets.  While house appreciation will be a slow climb, Interest rates will likely not be as slow.  Today’s low interest rates might be as good as it gets for a long time to come. In the next few years,  higher mortgage interest rates are  inevitable base on an economic expansion cycle in our economy and to temper inflation. This elevated interest rates will last for an extended period of time.

Mortgage rates on the rise are one signal that now might be the peak of home affordability, and the peak of the opportunity to buy or rent a home.

Rents continue to climb. Rental rates in many areas are on the rise. Foreclosures have placed additional pressure on rent prices as former homeowners are displaced due to foreclosure. New lending guidelines and restrictions have also kept people renting beyond their intended time-frame. As a result, rental homes are in high demand – and rents are rising.

Rising rents at a time when the prices of homes for sale are low is a clear signal that now might just be the time to buy. Be weary of foreclosure neighborhoods as that may dampen your house appreciation.

Timeframe. Successful home ownership usually requires a 5 – 7 year occupancy. If this meets your criteria for your next location than buying vs renting should be a no–brainer especially with a bottom predicted in most markets.  The key concept is to ensure you buy a home that meets your future needs – not just your current ones; and that requires that you have a reasonable idea of your life vision and plan for the future.

If you are convinced this is the time to buy rather than rent a home be sure  to use one of our Certified Buyer’s Agents (CBR) either Linda Flanders or Theresa Sherman. We focus on the Dartmouth – Lake Sunapee region of New Hampshire and Vermont. If you are from outside the region be sure to check with your local real estate broker or agent to get a pulse on the current market conditions.

Vision Appraisal provides quality Appraisal Services and CAMA Software to assessing departments not only in NH but throughout New England and the United States. The website can be a valuable tool in obtaining detailed information on prospective properties or your own. The company has grown to be a large New England provider of revaluation services and software.

Vision Appraisal created a nice site to help taxpayers better understand the revaluation process taking place in so many New Hampshire Towns. You can review their site here.

A full list of NH Towns covered by Vision Appraisal is below. We provided links to target Towns in our real estate brokerage coverage area within the Dartmouth – Lake Sunapee region of New Hampshire.

Alton, NH
Amherst, NH
Bedford, NH
Belmont, NH
Bow, NH
Bridgewater, NH
Charlestown, NH
Claremont, NH
Concord, NH
Derry, NH
Durham, NH
Enfield, NH
Epping, NH
Exeter, NH
Fremont, NH
Goffstown, NH
Gorham, NH
Grantham, NH
Greenland, NH
Hampton, NH
Hinsdale, NH
Hollis, NH
Hooksett, NH
Laconia, NH
Littleton, NH
Manchester, NH
Meredith, NH
Moultonborough, NH
New Durham, NH
Newmarket, NH
North Hampton, NH
Pelham, NH
Pembroke, NH
Raymond, NH
Rindge, NH
Rye, NH
Salem, NH
Sanbornton, NH
Sandown, NH
Strafford, NH
Swanzey, NH

If your property is in one of the New Hampshire towns listed above be sure to visit the Vision Appraisal database.

Sunapee, NH weather is brought to you courtesy of Corvus Group. Feel free to browse around for other information regarding Sunapee, NH

Newport NH real estate

Newport NH real estate median sales price (sold) is at $126,450 from June 1 2009 to June 1 2010.  The sales data actually includes sales in Croydon, NH and Cornish, NH which are still in the 03773 zip code with average days on the market at 83. Newport experienced several foreclosures that have brought the curve down at bit but stabilization is the current trend in the area.

If new construction real estate is more your flavor and you want to be within 10 minutes of Sunapee, NH, Sugar Brook is the Newport’s newest  community offering 63 residences situated on 130 acres of rolling hills, meandering brooks, peaceful ponds, and over 2700 feet of Sugar River Frontage. Located in Historic Newport, New Hampshire, one mile past Newport Golf course . 26 lots have been sold in the community since breaking ground in 2004.

Background:

Newport, NH also known as the Sunshine Town is a small friendly town nestled in the hills of western New Hampshire, in the scenic Upper Valley. It is conveniently located15 minutes from Interstate 89 and is  the county seat of Sullivan County, New Hampshire. Newport is about 43 miles in size with a population of 6,269 according to the 2000 census.  If you would like more information about Newport, NH real estate feel free to contact us at Corvus Group.

Pending sales of previously owned homes from March of 2009 to March of 2010 rose 21.1%, showing continued strength in the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, which is based upon contracts signed in March, increased 5.3% on a monthly basis – building on the prior month’s revised rise of 8.3%.

Keep in mind every real estate market is unique and although the NAR pending home sale index is up your market may vary. The trending theme seems to be a real bottom being established for real estate which is a breath of fresh air for everyone. Stabilization is the key to recovery and I think we’re see that in the last 3 – 6 months of  real estate data.

NAR’s latest update on the Commercial Real Estate Recovery is out and indicating 2011 as the bright spot.

The fourth quarter of 2009 continued to decline commercial real estate and 2010 looks like a decline increasing to a flatline.  However, 2011 according to chief economist Lawrence Yun will be the commercial real estate recovery.

“Because of the lingering impact from the deep recession over the past two years, vacancy rates will trend higher and many commercial property owners will need to make rent concessions.“With the job market expected to turn for the better later this year, we’ll see rising demand for office and warehouse space, but that isn’t likely before 2011,” Yun said. “At the same time, improved consumer confidence would help sustain the retail sector and encourage more people to enter the rental market.”

The SIOR index (Society of Industrial and Office Realtors), an indicator of commercial real estate activity is around 35.5.  The index needs to show a level of 100 to have a balanced commercial market. Although commercial real estate development has been slow or non-existent banks are starting to loosen up on credit and lending again. This is critical as 1.4 trillion in commercial debt will come due in the next 3 years according to Yun. This will happen when the interest rates will be considerably higher than today and valuations will most likely still be lower than the peak valuations of the loans made.

The good news for the commercial real estate recovery is the bottom is very near and will likely not be as long and as deep as the residential recession.

The most recent commercial property trends NAR report is out giving practitioners an accurate outlook at the four food groups of commercial real estate (office, retail, industrial, multi). Please remember every local market is different and this data is tracked from almost 60 markets across the nation and averaged. You’re local market may fair better or worse depending on your geographic location. Be sure to contact a commercial real estate practitioner in your area of interest.

Office Market

“Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to rise from 16.1 percent in the third quarter to 18.5 percent in the third quarter of 2010, with job losses continuing to dampen the market. Annual office rent should fall by 12.1 percent this year and decline another 8.5 percent in 2010.”

The commercial property trend above means you should carry twice as much vacancy in your proforma than normal and expect lower rent roll for the next few years. This is not ideal information  for commercial investors and landlords but quality information non the less.  This can be invaluable if you are in the market of planning your next acquisition or constructing new.

Industrial Market
“Industrial vacancy rates are forecasted to rise from 13.5 percent in the third quarter of this year to 15.4 percent in the third quarter of 2010. Annual industrial rent is projected to fall 10.8 percent this year and another 11.5 percent in 2010.”

Same story in the Industrial commercial market as office, higher vacancy lower rents. The silver lining in the industrial real estate market is the rent gap is expected to decline the least out of any of the four commercial property types by only .7 percent

Retail Market
“Retail vacancy rates will probably rise from 12.2 percent in the third quarter to 13.0 percent in the third quarter of 2010. “Near term, retail is the most hopeful commercial sector with an expected rise in consumer confidence, resulting from a restoration of housing wealth as home prices stabilize and begin to rise around the spring of next year,” Yun said. Average retail rent should decline 1.3 percent in 2009 and 3.0 percent next year.”

According to Yun (chief economist at NAR) Retail may be the safest of the 4 commercial property sectors as consumer confidence and residential housing stabilization returns to normal. The great notion in the report is residential prices actually may increase in 2010. Commerical sector looks like it will be 2011 with retail and multi-family leading the recovery and office and industrial lagging.

Multifamily Market
“The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is impacted by higher home sales to first-time home buyers. “However, as the economy turns around and consumer confidence returns, constraints on household growth will be released, which may help to unleash a pent-up rental demand,” Yun said. Multifamily vacancy rates are projected to be fairly steady, edging up from 7.3 percent in the third quarter of 2009 to 7.4 percent in the third quarter of next year. Average rent is likely to decline 4.1 percent this year, moderating to a 3.3 percent loss in 2010.”

The multi-family sector will show a rental rate decline this year and next with some stablization with possible increases in 2011 (depending on macro-economic decisions). However, The vacancy should stay flat from 2009 to 2010. A good rule of thumb in your commercial multi-family proforma is to carry 10% vacancy (remember the 7.4% is the national average across tracked metro areas).

Property for sale in New Hampshire continues to perform well with NH homes sales increasing for the 3rd straight month according to data from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. This is the first 3 month sales increase since mid 2004. Although the news points to recovery in New Hampshire faster than most of the country the median price from August 2009 was still down 7 percent — to $221,950 — from the $237,700 median price of July 2008. Year to date, the median price is down 11 percent, from $240,000 in 2008 to $213,000 this year.

Again better than the national average, but we are looking for an equlibrium between sales activity and sales prices…moving more houses at lower prices will not last forever. Until then continue to enjoy what is left of the buyers market, my prediction is this time next year will be neutral if not an increasing sales price market