The most recent commercial property trends NAR report is out giving practitioners an accurate outlook at the four food groups of commercial real estate (office, retail, industrial, multi). Please remember every local market is different and this data is tracked from almost 60 markets across the nation and averaged. You’re local market may fair better or worse depending on your geographic location. Be sure to contact a commercial real estate practitioner in your area of interest.

Office Market

“Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to rise from 16.1 percent in the third quarter to 18.5 percent in the third quarter of 2010, with job losses continuing to dampen the market. Annual office rent should fall by 12.1 percent this year and decline another 8.5 percent in 2010.”

The commercial property trend above means you should carry twice as much vacancy in your proforma than normal and expect lower rent roll for the next few years. This is not ideal information  for commercial investors and landlords but quality information non the less.  This can be invaluable if you are in the market of planning your next acquisition or constructing new.

Industrial Market
“Industrial vacancy rates are forecasted to rise from 13.5 percent in the third quarter of this year to 15.4 percent in the third quarter of 2010. Annual industrial rent is projected to fall 10.8 percent this year and another 11.5 percent in 2010.”

Same story in the Industrial commercial market as office, higher vacancy lower rents. The silver lining in the industrial real estate market is the rent gap is expected to decline the least out of any of the four commercial property types by only .7 percent

Retail Market
“Retail vacancy rates will probably rise from 12.2 percent in the third quarter to 13.0 percent in the third quarter of 2010. “Near term, retail is the most hopeful commercial sector with an expected rise in consumer confidence, resulting from a restoration of housing wealth as home prices stabilize and begin to rise around the spring of next year,” Yun said. Average retail rent should decline 1.3 percent in 2009 and 3.0 percent next year.”

According to Yun (chief economist at NAR) Retail may be the safest of the 4 commercial property sectors as consumer confidence and residential housing stabilization returns to normal. The great notion in the report is residential prices actually may increase in 2010. Commerical sector looks like it will be 2011 with retail and multi-family leading the recovery and office and industrial lagging.

Multifamily Market
“The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is impacted by higher home sales to first-time home buyers. “However, as the economy turns around and consumer confidence returns, constraints on household growth will be released, which may help to unleash a pent-up rental demand,” Yun said. Multifamily vacancy rates are projected to be fairly steady, edging up from 7.3 percent in the third quarter of 2009 to 7.4 percent in the third quarter of next year. Average rent is likely to decline 4.1 percent this year, moderating to a 3.3 percent loss in 2010.”

The multi-family sector will show a rental rate decline this year and next with some stablization with possible increases in 2011 (depending on macro-economic decisions). However, The vacancy should stay flat from 2009 to 2010. A good rule of thumb in your commercial multi-family proforma is to carry 10% vacancy (remember the 7.4% is the national average across tracked metro areas).

Property for sale in New Hampshire continues to perform well with NH homes sales increasing for the 3rd straight month according to data from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. This is the first 3 month sales increase since mid 2004. Although the news points to recovery in New Hampshire faster than most of the country the median price from August 2009 was still down 7 percent — to $221,950 — from the $237,700 median price of July 2008. Year to date, the median price is down 11 percent, from $240,000 in 2008 to $213,000 this year.

Again better than the national average, but we are looking for an equlibrium between sales activity and sales prices…moving more houses at lower prices will not last forever. Until then continue to enjoy what is left of the buyers market, my prediction is this time next year will be neutral if not an increasing sales price market

1. Have a pre-sale home inspection. Be proactive by arranging for a pre-sale home inspection. An inspector will be able to give you a good indication of the trouble areas that will stand out to potential buyers, and you’ll be able to make repairs before open houses begin.

2. Organize and clean. Pare down clutter and pack up your least-used items, such as large blenders and other kitchen tools, out-of-season clothes, toys, and exercise equipment. Store items off-site or in boxes neatly arranged in the garage or basement. Clean the windows, carpets, walls, lighting fixtures, and baseboards to make the house shine.

3. Get replacement estimates. Do you have big-ticket items that are worn our or will need to be replaced soon, such your roof or carpeting? Get estimates on how much it would cost to replace them, even if you don’t plan to do it yourself. The figures will help buyers determine if they can afford the home, and will be handy when negotiations begin.

4. Find your warranties. Gather up the warranties, guarantees, and user manuals for the furnace, washer and dryer, dishwasher, and any other items that will remain with the house.

5. Spruce up the curb appeal. Pretend you’re a buyer and stand outside of your home. As you approach the front door, what is your impression of the property? Do the lawn and bushes look neatly manicured? Is the address clearly visible? Are pretty flowers or plants framing the entrance? Is the walkway free from cracks and impediments?

8000 home buyers tax credit?

Time is running out so hurry to make your purchase if you want to take advantage of the 8000 home buyers tax credit.

First-time home buyers purchasing homes between January 1, 2009 and December 1, 2009 are eligible to receive the 8000 dollar home buyers tax credit. To be considered a “first-time” home buyer, you or your spouse may not have owned a home or residence during the prior three years to your new home purchase. Remember the 8000 home buyers tax credit only applies to properties that will be a primary residence such as single family residence,  condos, townhouses and even co-ops.

According to NAR:

The $8000 home buyers credit break down as follows:

The maximum allowable credit for home buyers is $8,000. Each home buyer’s tax credit is determined by two factors: The price of the home—the credit is equal to 10% of the purchase price of the home, up to $8,000. The buyer’s income—single buyers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000—may receive the maximum tax credit.

If the Buyer(s)’ Income Exceeds These Limits, Can He/She Still Get a Credit?

Yes, some buyers may still be eligible for the credit.

The credit decreases for buyers who earn between $75,000 and $95,000 for single buyers and between $150,000 and $170,000 for home buyers filing jointly. The amount of the tax credit decreases as his/her income approaches the maximum limit. Home buyers earning more than the maximum qualifying income—over $95,000 for singles and over $170,000 for couples are not eligible for the credit.

Lastly, the credit does not need to be repaid as long as you or your spouse occupy your home for at least a three year period.  However, if  you do sell the property within the three year period, the credit will be recouped upon the sale.

The September 2009 NH housing market data has been released from NHAR. The real estate data is still relatively grim but with a few silver linings. The grim portion of the data is unemployment and foreclosures continue to increase and remain a drag on the housing market. On the other hand house sales are up month over month, unemployment is 3% lower than national average and New Hampshire’s economic activity index is the 4th highest in the country meaning we are poised for quicker recovery in terms of sales and selling price than most of the country.

NHAR stated:

Residential home sales statewide for June, July and August were 3 percent above last summer and year-to-date home sales were essentially the same as last year (-0.8 percent).  But median home prices kept falling, resulting in $300 million less sales volume.  The median home sale price this August statewide was $213,000, about the same as in August 2002.

Condominium sales were down 14 percent year to date, and the August median sale price of $165,000 was 12 percent below August of last year, and a bit below the 2003 median sale price.  One issue weighing on condominium sales is that their median sale price was very close (74 percent) to the residential home median selling price.  In some rural counties, it was equal to it or higher.

Most data and reports still point to an early next year recovery. So kiss the recession goodbye by the end of 2009 with a slow climb out in Spring 2010.

Welcome to the Corvus Group real estate blog. Our new website has officially launched with powerful new tools to service buyers and sellers looking for real estate in the Dartmouth – Lake Sunapee region of New Hampshire.

We hope you will use this site as well as our staff as a resource for any of your real estate needs.